The Southern Africa and Indian Ocean region is vulnerable to
- natural hazards; drought and cyclones
- conflict and violence
In early 2026, floods affected the region including Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, and 2 tropical cyclones hit Madagascar, causing significant damages, as it happens on a yearly basis.
El Niño induced drought
In 2023/2024, a prolonged El Niño-induced drought scorched crops in a region where 70% of the population relies on agriculture to survive. More than 30 million people across 14 countries were facing acute food insecurity and 6 countries declared a state of emergency due to the El Niño induced drought:
Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
The region is also regularly affected by disease outbreaks.
Mozambique
In Mozambique, approximately 4.5 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in the country, due to:
- recent floods
- national food insecurity
- armed conflict and insecurity in the conflict-affected areas in the North of the country
There has also been some 1.5 million displaced people and returnees due to violence since 2017.
Madagascar
In the Grand Sud and Grand Sud-Est regions of Madagascar, some 1.7 million people are facing acute food insecurity and an estimated 558,000 children under 5 are either currently suffering or at risk of suffering from acute malnutrition.
Zimbabwe
In Zimbabwe, after El Niño has induced prolonged dry spells, reduced rainfall, and increased temperatures, 6 million people had limited access to food during 2024-2025 lean season. In 2026 food insecurity is expected to remain widespread across the typical deficit-producing areas of the south, east, west, and far north.
Zambia and Malawi
In Zambia and Malawi, 1.7 million and 4 million people are projected to experience high level of food insecurity respectively (crisis level or higher).